AFLM Simulations

Predicted ladder positions current as at Round -1 (run on 2025-03-25)

Based on 50,000 sims (run cold)

Team
Avg. Position
Wins
%
Minor Premiers
Top 4
Top 8
Wooden Spoon
Hawthorn
Hawthorn
3.13
15.6
123.8%
35%
77%
95%
–
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions
3.71
15.4
122.0%
25%
70%
92%
–
Geelong
Geelong
5.86
14.1
122.2%
7%
40%
78%
<1%
Collingwood
Collingwood
6.11
13.8
115.7%
6%
37%
76%
<1%
Adelaide
Adelaide
5.99
13.8
115.4%
7%
39%
76%
<1%
Gold Coast
Gold Coast
7.38
13.4
111.9%
4%
26%
62%
<1%
GWS
GWS
6.27
13.2
106.9%
7%
37%
72%
<1%
Footscray
Footscray
7.01
13
110.7%
4%
29%
66%
<1%
Sydney
Sydney
9.09
12.3
107.7%
1%
13%
44%
<1%
Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide
8.80
11.6
103.6%
2%
15%
46%
<1%
St Kilda
St Kilda
10.88
11.1
95.9%
<1%
6%
26%
1%
Carlton
Carlton
11.04
10.8
102.5%
<1%
5%
24%
1%
Fremantle
Fremantle
11.56
10.6
94.7%
<1%
4%
20%
2%
Essendon
Essendon
11.79
9.9
89.8%
<1%
3%
17%
2%
Melbourne
Melbourne
14.40
8.2
82.9%
<1%
<1%
4%
10%
North Melbourne
North Melbourne
15.51
7.3
76.4%
–
<1%
1%
19%
Richmond
Richmond
16.11
7
73.4%
–
<1%
<1%
29%
West Coast
West Coast
16.36
6
69.5%
–
<1%
<1%
35%
1–18 of 72 rows
Rank
Team
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
P6
P7
P8
P9
P10
P11
P12
P13
P14
P15
P16
P17
P18
1
Hawthorn
Hawthorn
35%
20%
13%
9%
7%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
–
–
2
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions
25%
20%
14%
11%
8%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
–
3
Geelong
Geelong
7%
10%
11%
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
4
Collingwood
Collingwood
6%
9%
11%
11%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
5
Adelaide
Adelaide
7%
10%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
8%
7%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
6
Gold Coast
Gold Coast
4%
6%
7%
8%
9%
9%
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
5%
4%
3%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
7
GWS
GWS
7%
9%
10%
10%
10%
9%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
8
Footscray
Footscray
4%
7%
8%
9%
9%
10%
9%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
2%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
9
Sydney
Sydney
1%
2%
4%
5%
6%
8%
8%
9%
9%
9%
9%
8%
7%
6%
4%
2%
1%
<1%
10
Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide
2%
3%
5%
5%
7%
7%
8%
9%
9%
9%
9%
8%
7%
5%
3%
2%
<1%
<1%
11
St Kilda
St Kilda
<1%
<1%
2%
3%
3%
4%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
10%
10%
8%
5%
3%
1%
12
Carlton
Carlton
<1%
<1%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
8%
9%
10%
11%
11%
10%
8%
5%
3%
1%
13
Fremantle
Fremantle
<1%
<1%
1%
2%
2%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
10%
11%
11%
11%
9%
7%
4%
2%
14
Essendon
Essendon
<1%
<1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
8%
10%
11%
12%
12%
10%
7%
4%
2%
15
Melbourne
Melbourne
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
1%
2%
3%
5%
7%
9%
13%
17%
16%
14%
10%
16
North Melbourne
North Melbourne
–
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
2%
3%
4%
6%
9%
14%
19%
22%
19%
17
Richmond
Richmond
–
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
2%
3%
4%
7%
12%
17%
24%
29%
18
West Coast
West Coast
–
–
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
1%
2%
4%
6%
10%
17%
23%
35%
1–18 of 72 rows